Getting Started
How It Works
A contract tracks live win probability. Trade in, trade out, settle at $0 or $1.
A contract tracks the win probability of a team (price $0.00–$1.00). At game end, contracts settle at $1.00 (win) or $0.00 (loss).
Example trade
Eagles at $0.58 (58%). Long $1,000 at 5× = $5,000 exposure.
Probability → 70%
+$1,034
103.4% ROI
Probability → 40%
-$1,552
Liquidation risk ~46%
Key properties
- Binary terminal settlement — contracts settle at exactly $0 or $1
- Bounded price — probability constrained 0–1, affects liquidation math
- Convexity near extremes — moves become more violent near 0% or 100%
- Time decay — probability converges faster as game progresses
- Discrete event risk — single plays can move probability 20%+ instantly
Related
- Margin & Leverage — how the liquidation math works
- Oracle System — where the price comes from
- Settlement — what happens at game end