Multi-source weighted-median oracle with mark-price smoothing.
Custom multi-source oracle using weighted median (more manipulation-resistant than weighted average).
Data sources
Tier 1
55%
Prediction Markets (Polymarket, Kalshi)
Direct probability pricing
Tier 2
35%
Sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, Pinnacle)
Moneylines → implied probability
Tier 3
10%
Models (ESPN, Internal)
Sanity checks + tiebreakers
Mark price vs Index price
Index Price = raw weighted median (true consensus). Mark Price = dampened version for liquidations — prevents flash spikes from triggering mass liquidations.
Mark Price = 0.7 × Index Price + 0.3 × 5-second EMA of Index Price
Safety mechanisms
Staleness filter — sources not updated in 30s drop to zero weight
Deviation cap — source deviating 10%+ from median is excluded
